CONSTRUCTION SUPPLY CHAIN RISK ANALYSIS OF SEDIMENT CONTROL PROJECT (SABODAM) IN SIGI REGENCY USING A MONTE CARLO SIMULATION MODEL

Abstract

Natural disasters such as earthquakes, liquefaction, and flash floods are natural phenomena; the events of September 28, 2018 and in 2019 in Central Sulawesi Province resulted in increased sedimentation in the Palu River Basin and caused infrastructure damage in Sigi Regency. These events formed the basis for the Infrastructure Reconstruction Sector Loan (IRSL) Program as an effort to control sediment (sabodam) in Namo Village and Bolapapu Village. The supply chain for project implementation is prone to risks that will impact the timeline, cost, and quality of the work. This study aims to analyze the construction supply chain risk in the Sediment Control Project (Sabodam) in Sigi Regency using the Monte Carlo Simulation model. Risk identification is carried out based on the supply chain cycle which includes specifications, procurement, transportation, and fabrication. The research data was obtained from questionnaires filled out by ten respondents representing the managerial and operational functions of the project. The results showed that there were five main risks that significantly affected project implementation, namely changes in material prices, material scarcity, materials without permits (IUP), vendors not registered in the system, and transportation disruptions due to field conditions such as landslides. A Monte Carlo simulation run for 20,000 iterations estimated that the project faced a 6.23% risk of delay from the planned duration, a 6.11% risk of quality decline, and a 6.08% risk of cost increase from the total project budget.